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METHODOLOGICAL BASES OF ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF FACTOR REASONS IN PSYCHODIAGNOSIS

The statistical foundations of classical testology, often associated with the concept of factor causes. Implicitly, the essence of this concept is as follows. Various factors influence internal and external activities.

Internal factors are mainly personal and intellectual qualities of a person, its physiological and biological characteristics. Therefore, for psychodiagnostics it is important to identify the level and nature of the development of these factors in a particular person.

In the framework of psychodiagnostics, we are talking about identifying the level and nature of the development of mental qualities of a person, including intellectual ones. Implicitly within the framework of this concept was the conviction that the "better" a particular quality of a person is developed, the higher the result of her activities, including professional. This is often the case. So the more accurate the musician’s hearing, the higher, ceteris paribus, the results of his professional activities. The higher the intelligence, professional knowledge, the higher, all other things being equal, the results of a scientist’s professional activity, etc. The assumption is sound. However, there is practically no effect of other equal conditions: all people are very different and a more optimal level of development of one quality is usually combined with a lower level of development of another. So people with higher intelligence from childhood get used to relying on their intelligence,

many of them increase their self-esteem, form an individualistic style of activity, build up self-confidence in their subconscious, etc. And in the process of real professional activity, these accumulated negative qualities already become a brake on the professional progress of a person in accordance with the level of development of his intellect.

It is no coincidence that all the child prodigy schools that recruited children with an exceptionally high IQ in intellectual tests did not give a higher percentage of prominent persons compared to regular schools. The exception is the elite educational institutions of the leading countries of the world, but rather for social reasons, rather than psychological.

In accordance with the concept of factor reasons, there should be a connection: a certain level of development of the professional quality of the personality - a certain level of professional skill. Statistically, on an array of a large number of cases, this relationship is indeed manifested, but as soon as it comes to a specific person, other factors intervene that reduce the accuracy of psychodiagnostics and the validity of the technique to an unacceptable level. Attempts to find some personality traits that would vividly correlate with the results of a particular professional activity were unsuccessful in world psychology. Therefore, in most cases, tests based on the effect of factor factors are predictive CONDITION for a particular personality quality, but not for one or another type of professional activity. This phrase needs clarification.

The conventionality of prognosticity for a particular personality quality is determined by the ambiguity, inconsistency, and plasticity of this personality quality itself. So often (about 10 percent among people aged 20 to 35 years) show conflicting data on the Cattell scale A (sociability) and About the MMRI scale (social introversion, almost sociability also). Poor Cattell test A scores (diagnoses low sociability) may be accompanied by an optimal level of professional sociability. There are unique cases of pedagogical activity - a brilliant teacher gives all the best in class, boldly and easily communicates with the audience, extremely intensively, informatively, but he prefers to remain silent with his family and comrades, showing the features of introversion. And this is not strange: the well-known effect of compensation and hypercompensation is manifested.

Therefore, applying this or that test diagnosing personality traits, sometimes one cannot say something intelligible about the successes of professional activity. However, if there is no certain level of development of some important personality trait, then this is a contraindication for a particular professional activity. So without musical hearing it is impossible to become an outstanding or even talented musician, without a certain level of development of the ability to conclude, without a certain level of development of intellectual abilities, you cannot become not only a good scientist, but also a mediocre engineer, etc. The concept of factor causes works on the principle of contraindication when it comes to diagnosing a professional predisposition to a particular activity. The level of contraindications is very dynamic and as a rule includes not only one or another level of development of the personality quality leading for a given professional activity, but also those that accompany it. In a word, in the individual style of professional activity, surprisingly dialectically intertwine, the most numerous personality qualities are accumulated, which make an attempt to predict its success by one or even several qualities unpromising.

However, this does not mean the uselessness, the uselessness of tests, methods built in accordance with the concept of factor factors. Individual, especially important for a particular profession personality traits can and should be diagnosed with these methods, but understanding that they work on the basis of the BLURED CONTRAINDICATION.

So, the presence of a low level of development of a professionally important personality quality serves as a probabilistic sign of insufficiently effective professional activity, but from a certain level the relationship “professional quality of a person - level of professional mastery” becomes more and more mediated by other parameters, circumstances, and personality qualities. In a word - bad hearing is a clear probable sign of failure in musical activity, but good is not yet a sufficient basis for success: there are so many people with excellent hearing, but who have remained failed musicians ...

The concept of factor causes in psychology in an implicit form is present in the theoretical views of all authors of classical tests. It is understood that the personality has certain qualities, parameters that are measured by tests.

The severity of these qualities, parameters can be different. Each of these qualities is diagnosed by a particular test scale. So the Cattell test diagnoses 16 such parameters, and by virtue of this is called a 16-factor personality questionnaire. In principle, this concept is based on sound reasoning and obvious facts: thus, the extremely low level of sociability of a person can serve as a direct reason for its insufficiently effective activity in a particular profession. But statistics and experience have shown that this happens in extreme cases, and because of this, in rare cases. In most cases, people have a normal level of development of certain qualities, and the low level of development of some is offset by the higher level of development of others. Therefore, when a forecast is given for a particular activity, it is fundamentally important to accumulate in this forecast the influence of the whole diverse spectrum of personality qualities (the influence of sociability, industriousness, perseverance, intelligence, etc., etc.). This is on the one hand.

On the other hand, the level of development of a particular personality quality is influenced by a mass of a wide variety of parameters: the characteristics of the educational influence of mother, father, brother, sister, grandfather, grandmother, friends, comrades, teachers, genetic predisposition, etc. etc. There are hundreds, thousands, tens of thousands of these factors, and all this variety of factors affects the development of a particular personality trait, determines the success of an activity. Experimental studies have shown that individual, most pronounced factors can satisfactorily explain up to 30-40% of personality behavior, while the forecast based on the effect of cumulative causes - when a combination of tens, hundreds of various microfactors is taken into account - is justified in 70-60% of cases (if it is done scientifically, correctly).

We confirm our thoughts with specific experimental data.

Cattell's technique diagnoses 16 factors - groups of personality traits. The level of development of these qualities is expressed in sten (from 1 to 1O). If the level of development of personality traits is expressed in a certain amount of points that are put for certain answers to test questions, and if this amount of points has a normal distribution law (and this is achieved during the experimental work when creating the test), then the statistical relationship of this normal distribution and sten values ​​will be next.

But such a ratio of sten and percentage of all examined for some quality of personality is characteristic of all people.

Persons with a higher level of development of many qualities are selected for some positions and professions.
Nevertheless, standard tests are used in their examination. Therefore, the average value for some quality is far from always close to 5 sten.

To study the personality traits that determine the success or failure of a particular professional activity, discriminant analysis is widely used. Its essence consists in distinguishing two contrasting groups (the best and the "worst") and identifying various parameters, signs, indicators characterizing these groups. The possibilities of discriminant analysis were used in predicting a professional predisposition to various professions.

Consider this as an example of a study of the identities of managers, agents involved in real estate trading, requiring the ability to establish confidential communications. The effectiveness of these agents was different. The company did not want to allow the leakage of information about the nature of its activities, especially about the methods used, and therefore was interested in selecting those employees who, according to their abilities, mood, intelligence, would meet the requirements of this activity and were stably “attached” to the company.

The salaries of managers were very high and the only reason for rejecting their services was the factor of their inability to establish confidential relationships and succeed.

Prior to this, an order for the selection of managers for the company was carried out by one psychological institution. After the introduction of the proposed selection system, the result of agent activity did not improve, but worsened. The reasons for this will be explained later.

How was the repeated acmeological study started?

A group of the best and “worst” managers was taken for examination and their personality traits were identified using the methods that were supposed to be applied. One of these BEMKON techniques is a biographical express methodology; others - Cattell, MMPI, etc.

The group selected for discriminant analysis consisted of 57.1% of the best and 42.9% of the "worst" real estate managers. In quotation marks, the group of “worst” was not taken by chance, since among the “worst” there were many wonderful people and excellent specialists in other areas of professional activity.

In principle, almost all personality and other parameters are somehow related to the success of managerial activity, but the contribution of each of these parameters to the overall success is specific. If any factor (for example, eye color) is accidentally associated with the success of the managerial function, then the probability distribution in people with the same eye color will fluctuate around the probability of O, 571, with a random deviation (normal distribution law) in one direction or another. If the factor is significant for the effectiveness of managerial activity, then the deviation will be statistically significant, that is, not coincide with the probability of O, 571. Depending on this, the prognosticity of one or another factor can be estimated in points. Empirically, it can be assumed of particular importance for the effectiveness of the managerial function of sociability as a personality trait. Due to this, we can assume a statistically significant relationship between the sociability of a person diagnosed by tests and the level of development of his managerial abilities.

The discriminant analysis allows to statistically confirm or refute this assumption.

We illustrate this with the example of the sociability scale (scale A) of the Cattell test (16 factor personality questionnaire).

Predictability Data

the severity of sociability (scale A 16FLO)

for managerial activities



Based on the obtained statistical dependencies, it is possible to construct a graph of the dependence of the success of managerial activity on the level of development of sociability.

Schedule

managerial success



P - probability of successful managerial activity

A qualitative interpretation of this graph will be given later. Now it’s important for us to clarify that on the basis of this dependence it is possible to quantify the prognosticity for professional and other activities of all test values ​​that examined its best and worst representatives. In principle, such assessments could simply be the likelihood of successful performance of managerial functions. However, the percentage distribution of the subjects, depending on the level of development of their sociability, is uneven. So, only a few people had low sociability (1-2 sten). The results obtained in this range of values ​​do not have sufficient statistical reliability.

In the given example, there is no doubt in the laws of the resulting dependence, since this is logical from a psychological point of view. At the same time, in most cases there is no such evidence. To a large extent, the insufficient statistical significance of some survey results is due to the uneven distribution of the subjects in terms of the severity of certain qualities and parameters. So people with an extremely low level of development of sociability were extremely few: values ​​of 1 stan - 5 people, values ​​of 2 sten - 5 people.

This is clearly a statistically insufficient number of people to obtain reliable results. The degree of confidence in them should be less than in the case of 2OO-5OO subjects. This is taken into account in discriminant analysis when obtaining prognostic indices.

The value of prognostic indices depends both on the proportion of the subjects and on the magnitude of the deviation of the probability of successful activity by this group of subjects from the average norm.

The study used various options for discriminant analysis. There is no need to go into its mathematical details. We show how the prognostic indices were obtained.

None (0%) of those surveyed whose sociability was rated at 1 stan did not perform managerial functions qualitatively. According to the sample, 57.1% of all surveyed performed them.

So, we have 0% -57.1% = -57.1%. But this difference was obtained on a small proportion of the subjects (O, O32). -57.1% x O, O32 = -1.8

Such is the prognostic index of the sociability factor equal to 1 sten according to the Cattell test in predicting the success of managerial functions.

For all Cattell scale A values, the prognostic indices will be as follows:

Value table

the Cattell test A psychoprognostic indices

obtained using the developed variant of discriminant analysis



In the Cattell test of such scales 16. The corresponding psychoprognostic indices were obtained for all the values ​​of these scales. Now it is possible to evaluate not only the zone of optimal scale values, but also the degree of prognosticity of each value in this zone.

Summarizing the values ​​of the indices of a particular subject, one can find the general psychoprognostic index of the predisposition of this person to this work. This approach is more accurate than widespread attempts to find a personality profile for a particular test of representatives of various professional and other groups. However, he did not allow achieving sufficient accuracy in predicting a predisposition both to managerial work and to one or another type of professional activity, although he increased the general validity of the forecast from an unacceptable level to a statistically significant positive correlation (O, 2 - O, 3). Apparently, the reason for this is fundamental and is connected with the system of determination of one or another activity in general, with the fact that the forecast should be based on the effect of factor-cumulative reasons. An attempt to systematically consider them will be undertaken later. At the same time, relying on the results of diagnostics of the level of development of each personality quality diagnosed by 16 FLO is clearly insufficient for an effective prognosis. In the proposed methodological approach, the accuracy of the forecast was higher than simple guessing, but clearly not high for practical use in the statistical version.

Однако данный подход дает возможность рационально осмыслить полученные статистические зависимости, простор для качественного психологического анализа. Данный тезис достоин иллюстрации на примере проведенного исследования.
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