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Within the framework of the concept of factorial causes, we considered the possibility of increasing the validity of the forecast for a particular professional activity by summing up (more broadly and more accurately, using) psycho-predictive indices for each factor studied (scale).

Further studies have shown that the accuracy of the forecast can be improved if psychoprognostic indices are found using a special method, not for a given scale value, but for a particular answer to each test question.

So the third question of the Cattell test is presented as follows:

3. I would gladly spend my vacation:

1 - in a busy resort town

2 - I have no definite opinion

3 - in a quiet house away from the driveways

According to a specially created computer program, prognostic indices were found for both this and other issues. Here are the results.


Note: when testing, a different translation version is used, adapting this test item to the audience being tested.

As we see, the desire for solitude is statistically negatively associated with a predisposition for managerial activities.

The answer to this (third) question is included in the sociability scale (A). Prognostic indices for all test questions are obtained in a similar way.

Now, according to the results of filling in the test, you can find the total amount of forecasting indices for all 187 questions. Persons who received these indices in the range from 3OO to 25O, fulfilled their professional duties brilliantly in 8O% of cases. Those whose sum of the indices was less than -2OO - they were successfully completed in 1O% of cases. On the basis of the statistical dependencies found, an automated forecasting system has been created for managerial activity. In this case, the forecast is given in a 5-point scale. This estimate is conditional, it is necessary in order to orient people who are not specialists in the field of mathematical psychology in the forecast results. Traditionally, practitioners more easily perceive the score on a 5-point scale than in indices and probabilities.

However, the obtained statistical forecast cannot be absolutized: the personality is exceptionally plastic and this approach does not take into account all the compensatory possibilities of a person.

Existing tests are mostly poorly focused on the diagnosis of personality traits that determine the success of a particular professional activity: in fact, we only approach experimental psychodiagnostics of the semantic motives of activity, the influence of attitudes, defense mechanisms, and the unconscious on the individual’s desire for professional skills.

The proposed methodology is based on the effect of cumulative causes, while more accurately building a forecast based on factor-cumulative causes. Under cumulative reasons we mean, as it were, the summation of the influence on the development of the personality of many factors, the extent of which influence on the development of professional skill has a normal distribution law. With regard to the success of management activities, this includes the conditions of upbringing in the family, the influence on success of various personality traits, features of intelligence, nervous system, etc. etc. Each of these factors is estimated by the psycho-prognostic index, and the effect of their cumulation is found by summing up (more precisely, the dialectical combination) of these indices. But this is clearly too crude an approach to identify the influence of certain strong factors that do not fit into the hypothesis, the concept of the distribution of the influence of these factors according to the law of large numbers.

A separate factor, a single cause can so strongly affect the results of an activity that it seems to override the influence of all the others. This is the so-called factorial effect.

At the same time, the proposed statistical approach for predicting the success of various activities does not take this effect into account to a sufficient degree.

Consider this on the example of the scale A (sociability) test Cattell.

In this test, sociability is diagnosed by questions NN 3, 26, 27, 51, 52, 76, 1О1, 126, 151, 176 (see p.).

On these issues, the following psychoprognostic



psychoprognostic indexes for scale A issues

Based on this table, we construct a graph of dependence, the relationship of the sum of psycho-predictive indices by sociability and the degree of its manifestation in the walls.

The greatest number of points on this scale is 2O, they correspond to the following sum of indices: 2.2 + 4, O + 3.4 - O, 4 -4.1 -1.7 + O, 1 -2.2 +1.8 = 2.9

For the average level of sociability (the score is equal to 1o). the sum of the indices is O, 1 + O +1.4 +2.4 + 2.6-O, 4 + 2.4 - O, 9 - 1.9 + 2, O = 7.7

And for extremely low sociability (the sum of the points is equal to o) the sum of the indices is -2.3 -4, O - 4.9 - 7.3 - 2.1 + 4.6 - O, 8 + O, 8 + 4.1 - 3.8 = -15.7.

The higher the amount of psycho-predictive indices, the higher the probability of successful fulfillment of managerial functions in the process of managing people, and vice versa. Let's build in confirmation of this schedule.


relationship severity of sociability (in the amount of

raw points, by the size of stan) and the sum of psycho-prognostic indices of the values ​​of this scale

As you can see, the proposed schedule is close to the schedule of successful execution of managerial functions, depending on the level of development of sociability. Similar results are obtained in several different ways. And it speaks about their reliability. Answers to all questions of the scale A of the Cattell test, which diagnose sociability, are also correlated to the results of practical activity. This is fundamentally important.

At the time of the birth of experimental studies, the overall prediction for tests of the Cattell type was often given by adding the values ​​of the scales. It does not hold water from the scientific point of view. Naturally, all studies in the field of validity of a test for a particular professional activity were doomed to an unsatisfactory result. When predicting the results of specific practical activities, the addition of test scales, even with different weighting factors, led to conflicting data. However, if each answer of the test is indexed by the proposed method (there are other methodological approaches developed and tested, but they are more complex and difficult for an accessible presentation, although they are more accurate), then adding the indexes will increase the predictability of the test according to the following dependency:


depending on the accuracy of the forecast for a specific

type of activity on the number of questions in the test

At the same time, the test with the highest accuracy (without double correlation) is correlated to the results of practical activity. In the proposed case, the effect of each test question on the overall result is close to the normal distribution law.

This methodical approach makes it possible to get away from the loss of accuracy from the effect of double error, double correlation. So when predicting the severity of sociability, the test gives an error. The relationship of the degree of severity of sociability with the results of practical activity is very complex, difficult, controversial. The determination of the statistical relationship between the degree of sociability and the results of practical activity also gives an error (the effect of accumulation of error from double correlation). Experimental calculations show that the forecast on this basis becomes unsatisfactory.

At the same time, the fundamental problem of classical testing is solved: each question of the test can contribute to the prognosis of a professional activity, regardless of which scale it relates to. If this question is clearly correlated with other professionally important qualities of the manager (and not just with sociability), then the prognostic indices will reflect the weight of all these qualities in the overall forecast. In a word, this approach frees up certain factors (until factor factors begin to influence, until they overlap the effect of cumulative causes) from the need to solve a dilemma: what is the best level of sociability and not very high level of emotional stability, or vice versa . in a wide variety of combinations. The theoretical concept of this is already beyond the scope of classical testing - this is the concept of factor-cumulative causes.

In methodical systems based on the effect of factorial causes, the validity of the methodology is drastically lost at the stage of diagnosing a particular personality quality (let's say sociability) on certain issues and at the stage of forecasting the results of practical activity according to the degree of expression of this quality - sociability or other.

Let us explain this by the example of one of the questions on the scale A of the Cattell test. So question 76 of the test is put like this:

76. Starting work on a useful invention, I would prefer

1 - develop it in the laboratory

2 - something in between

3 - engage in its practical implementation

Answer 3 (to engage in its practical implementation) diagnoses a higher sociability. But at the same time, the answer 1 (develop it in the laboratory) is associated with a greater predisposition to individual, creative activity.

Therefore, the obtained indices on this issue reflect not the influence of sociability on the results of activities, but the influence of individual creative (and other) components of the personality on the success of practical activities.

There is a fact of cumulation of causes, factors affecting the results of practical activities and on individual test questions. But if the answer to this question is 1, and to all previous answers they also diagnose low sociability, then the effect of the factor reason on the scale A (sociability) works. Persons with such low sociability have almost no chance of success in managerial activities with people, compensation for this lack of other personal qualities is extremely difficult. In this situation, you should take this particular person and examine him for the possibility of developing sociability in the preparation process. If this results in a negative answer, an unambiguous contraindication follows (even if the sum of the indices for all the test questions is very favorable). Thus, the effect of cumulative causes is complemented by the effect of factor (point) causes. And if the technique is not set up to capture both factor and cumulative reasons, then the statistical approach must necessarily be complemented by a qualitative psychological one.

The same answer to the test question (factor, cause, group of factors) may reflect the influence of both positive and negative factors on the results of a particular practical activity. And such a controversial effect of each specific factor cannot be diagnosed based only on the effect of cumulative causes, a diagnostic technique and factor causes are necessary both in the aspect of contraindication and in the aspect of indication. This is demonstrated by the considered example. So most of the questions that diagnose a person's predisposition to intensive communication positively correlate with the results of managerial activities. But if the subject chose all these "best" answers and scored 9-1O stan, then it will be worse (see: chart), it will already be excessive sociability. Moreover, in some cases (explicit accentuation), the Cattell test simply will not take the degree of this overt expression, it requires the zero scale of the MMPI test, other methodological approaches.

In a particular manager, sociability may be such that sometimes it is easy to push people away.
And this factorial cause can decisively predetermine the failure of professional activity in the absolute majority of situations and cases. While according to other parameters, a person may fit the image, the model of the "best" professional.

Thus, for a more accurate prediction of the success of a professional activity, a forecast is needed based on the patterns of interaction between factor (point) and cumulative causes. In this case, cumulative causes are understood as the random interaction of many factors, the influence of which coincides or is close to the normal distribution law. A factor cause is an effect that somehow overlaps the influence of cumulative causes or is related to their influence. The influence of factorial causes is close to the functional dependence, it cannot be accurately described with the help of an apparatus reflecting probabilistic, random processes. But a psychologist can do this one-on-one while working with the subject, trying with his intuition and experience to grasp reasons that are not yet fixed within the framework of a statistical approach. Yes, and so far, far from all the qualities of a person, which can have a decisive influence on her professional activities, are diagnosed by modern tests.

By virtue of this, the statistical dependencies obtained, expert automated systems built on their basis are not correctly absolutized, but it would be wrong not to take them into account or use them in their practical work. After all, if we take all the surveyed, then in relation to the majority of the proposed statistical approach is correct. Another thing is that it must be supplemented with a qualitative psychological analysis of the personality.

The science of the study of personality must be complemented by the art of its understanding. And here the human consciousness undergoes significant metamorphosis, presenting his understanding of this personality for one reason or another. And this is originally characteristic of humanity, and not only psychologists, practitioners. L.N. Tolstoy noted: "The aggregate of causes of phenomena is inaccessible to the human mind, but the need to find the causes is embedded in the human soul." one

The result of the practical work of the manager is influenced by various factors (the personality of the professional, the personality with which he works, the particularities of their interaction, external factors). At the present stage of development of experimental research in this area, we can talk about creating a personality model of the best and "worst" manager and representatives of a number of other professions and about the possibility of comparison with these personality models of a particular subject, about building a forecast on this basis. Comparison of the best and the "worst" professional is most effective in statistical terms by the method already described and its analogues, which are much more complex, although more accurate.

If you take the personality of a professional, then its various components, their degree of expression (sociability is one of the many qualities that ensure the success of managerial activities) are variously related to the success of professional activity.

Between different groups of personality traits there is the effect of compensating for one another.

The most often effect of compensation is observed between personal and intellectual qualities. One professional succeeds due to his highly developed intellectual qualities (fast, agile, analytical thinking, etc.), and the other thanks to his personal qualities: the ability to feel a person, perseverance in teaching others, will, sociability, intuition, etc. . Most often, these qualities are in relative harmony, relative unity. But there are cases when a high level of development of intellectual qualities is accompanied by a low level of personal development, and vice versa. Moreover, the higher the intelligence quotient (IQ) of the subject, starting at about 12 ° IQ, the higher the likelihood of his personal qualities coming out of the zones of optimal development level.

Because of this, the forecast of the success of a professional activity requires consideration of a predisposition towards it, both in terms of personal qualities and intellectual ones. In the PSY expert system, the diagnosis of personality traits is carried out using

1 L. Tolstoy. Sobs.soch., V.7. War and peace, M .: 1974, p.71.

already described methods, Bamcon, Cattella on the principle of cumulative-factor reasons. Psycho-prognostic indices were found by using discriminant analysis for each test question. The higher the sum of the indices, the higher the probability of success of this professional activity, all other things being equal. Among these "other" equal conditions, external conditions, situations in which a person falls are of particular importance: relations with the authorities, the general situation, the level of material wealth, the situation in the family, etc. In various situations, employees with a slightly different level will be more reliable. development of personal qualities.

Any scientific research in psychology abstracts from the mass of factors influencing the phenomenon under study, and analyzes one or several (rarely several) factors. There are special experimental schemes that allow you to do this. Only through this approach is it possible to recreate the dynamics of the interaction of all factors. Whether it suits us or not, but this is how scientific knowledge develops. In this case, the researcher is experiencing internal satisfaction with the identified individual dependencies, at the same time, the practitioner may even feel displeasure and irritation. His goal is to capture the dynamics of influence on a process of all factors, and on this basis to predict development. Therefore, it is not uncommon for the practitioner to have an internal protest against researchers who are forced to limit themselves to what is really achievable.

Применительно к нашему случаю возможны возражения типа: но ведь не учитывается личность изучаемого, эффект психологической совместимости и т.д. Безусловно, каждый из этих факторов может стать решающим, определяющим в данный конкретный момент времени и как бы перекрыть, перечеркнуть прогноз, полученный на основе анализа только личности менеджера. All this is so. Но это не отрицает, более того - предполагает подобное научное исследование. Экспериментальное исследование в современной психологии вынужденно абстрагироваться от многих факторов. Более того, это фундаментальное свойство человеческого мышления. В процессе абстрагирования мы можем рассмотреть какой-то один аспект проблемы, постепенно перебирая их один за одним. И в результате анализа отдельных факторов получается не пустоцвет.

Дело в том, что в природе, особенно в психологических, социальных явлениях широко проявляется закон больших чисел. На основе этого закона существует немало методов определения влияния того или иного фактора на какой-то процесс, какое-то явление. Применительно к нашему случаю это проявляется в зависимости эффективности менеджерской деятельности от личности менеджера. И если это улавливается статистически на массиве достаточно большого числа случаев (вступает в силу закон больших чисел), то это действительно важный, активно действующий фактор.

Итак, прогноз успешности профессиональной деятельности только на основе анализа психологических особенностей личности профессионала, в частности менеджера, возможен. При этом предполагается, что он действует в различных ситуациях, взаимодействует с клиентами, обладающими различными индивидуально-психологическими особенностями, но "попадать" друг на друга они будут как бы случайно. Таким образом, выявленные тенденции, прогнозы будут оправдываться в большинстве случаев, на большом массиве обследуемых. Зная же психологические закономерности совместимости людей можно успешность человеческого взаимодействия сделать более вероятной. Все это и в каждом конкретном случае не отрицает возможности успешного прогнозирования предрасположенности к менеджерской и другой деятельности.

Целенаправленное акмеологическое тестирование предполагает соотнесение результатов тестирования с результатами экспериментального исследования профессионалов данного профиля. Без наложения результатов тестирования на результаты экспериментальной работы по выявлению степени прогностичности каждой шкалы теста, каждого интервала шкалы теста, более того - каждого вопроса теста на ту или иную профессиональную деятельность - прогноз будет носить в значительной степени эмпирический характер даже при внешней наукообразности применяемых

методик. К сожалению все имеющиеся методические подходы к созданию профессиограмм специалистов того или иного профиля не могут нас удовлетворить в полной мере. Ведь получается противоречивая ситуация: есть качества, параметры личности, которые должны играть ведущую роль в профессиональной деятельности человека, однако реально практически нет людей, которые бы обладали высоким уровнем развития всех этих качеств личности. Реально у всех людей большая часть обследуемых параметров имеет закон нормального распределения. В большинстве случаев встречаются ситуации, когда у профессионалов различный, весьма противоречивый уровень развития качеств личности, когда включается и активно действует механизм компенсации, гиперкомпенсации и т.д. В жизни профессионалы не делятся на "черных" и "белых". Это с одной стороны. С другой стороны, создалась противоречивая ситуация: для покрытия всей профессиограммы надо диагностировать одни качества личности, а реально имеющиеся методические средства могут "покрыть" несколько иные. И выходит, что профессиограммы существуют сами по себе, а система психологического, акмеологического тестирования сама по себе. Их реально сопоставить, состыковать можно только применив при создании экспериментальных профессиограмм те методические средства, которые затем будут работать и при отборе, изучении людей.

Это можно сделать различными путями. И если путь статистических расчетов построенных на эффекте куммулятивных причин весьма математизирован и как-бы не соответствует закономерностям восприятия информации обычным человеком, то предлагаемый путь статистической обработки каждой шкалы теста на примере лучших и худших специалистов покрывает потребности диагностики в соответствии с эффектом факторных причин. И чем более всесторонними будут наши экспериментальные данные в этой области, тем более и более полученные результаты будут приближаться к облику экспериментальной профессиограммы, где будет смоделировано влияние не только групп качеств, отдельных личностных особенностей, но и эффект их взаимной компенсации, эффект их взаимодействия между собой (на основе эффекта куммуляции). Это более психологический путь развития акмеологических изысканий, более соответствующий особенностям восприятия и переработки информации человеком.

Сделаем вывод. У каждой личности вырабатывается индивидуальный стиль профессиональной деятельности, в котором индивидуально неповторимо сочетаются различные качества личности, полученные знания, навыки, умения. Центральными качествами личности, обеспечивающими успех сложных видов профессиональной деятельности (при достаточном исходном уровне сформированности профессиональных знаний, навыков, умений) являются смыслообразующие мотивы, установки, потребности личности. Большинство классических тестов, диагностируя те или иные особенности интеллекта, те или иные качества личности, пока не диагностируют достаточно точно ее наиболее важные, глубинные качества. И тем не менее из существующих тестов можно выжать в целях повышения точности прогноза на профессиональные виды деятельности значительно больше, нежели мы имеем сейчас, на данный момент развития тестологии. Это приращение может быть достигнуто за счет нового подхода к созданию тестов, нового шкалирования, учитывающего как эффект факторных, так и эффект куммулятивных причин в формировании профессионального мастерства. Наиболее перспективно данный подход реализовывать в соответствии с концепцией факторно-куммулятивных причин путем создания соответствующих экспертных систем, относящихся к новым информационным технологиям.
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    The formation of professional fitness, the formation of a professional is inextricably linked with the self-determination of the individual, that is, with self-realization, self-assertion, self-improvement, self-knowledge. This process is due to the manifestations of internal resources, forces, attitudes towards the professional development of the personality and its development. Self-determination of personality is a conscious act of identifying and
  14. Professional fears - indicators of the regulatory crisis of the professional development of the personality of the school psychologist
    In domestic and foreign studies, the problem of crises in the professional development of an individual is closely related to the age periodization of a person’s life. The boundaries of adulthood are differently defined by different researchers. CE Pinyaeva and N.V. Andreev believes that this diversity in defining the boundaries of the period under consideration can be explained by the effect of temporary, economic, social and
  15. Causes of gene diseases (for example, ezimopatii)
    Наследственные генные болезни обусловлены генными мутациями, изменяющими генетический код синтеза белков. Gene mutations occur when the sequence of nucleotides in a gene's DNA changes. There are two main classes of gene mutations: substitution of nucleotide pairs, when one or several nucleotide pairs in DNA are replaced by others; mutation with a frame shift due to insertion or
  16. The concept of "identity." Personality and her professional characteristics
    To discuss issues related to the personal characteristics of the subjects of a particular professional activity, you must first define the boundaries of the concept of "personality". Otherwise, the conversation runs the risk of being pointless or blurred. The author of the Big Explanatory Psychological Dictionary, Arthur Reber, a famous American psychologist, in an article devoted to
  17. Additional recommendations and examples of coding causes of death related to individual ICD-10 classes
    Class 1 A40 codes. - "Streptococcal septicemia", A41. - "Other septicemia", A46. - "Erysipelas" can be used to encode the original cause of death when they accompany superficial injuries (any condition related to the headings SOO, S10, S20, S30, S40, S50, S60, S70, S80, S90, TOO, T09 .0, T11.0) or burns I-st ​​degree. If they accompany more serious injuries,
  18. Принцип морально-позитивного эффекта профессиональных действий психолога.
    -Психолог должен делать все возможное для определения ситуаций, в которых психологические техники или инструментарий вообще не могут быть адекватно использованы или на их использование должны быть наложены соответствующие ограничения. Это касается случаев, когда психологическим инструментом пользуются непрофессионалы или когда исследование болезненно затрагивает такие индивидуальные особенности
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